India Today Group and Axis-My-India exit poll hits bull’s eye in Delhi assembly elections

After getting it right in the 2019 General Elections and other Assembly Elections in the states of Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand, India Today Group’s exit poll have got the Delhi Assembly Elections also right, beating all other polls on the election outcome.

The India Today Group and Axis-My-India have been partnering for exit polls since 2016 and have got 33 out of 35 polls correct. This is with an accuracy of more than 95%.

Conducting the biggest exit poll for the world's largest democracy for the 2019 General Elections, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, for instance, predicted 339-365 seats for the BJP-led NDA and 77-108 seats for the UPA in the new Lok Sabha. And the actual results matched the prediction - the NDA got 352 and the UPA 92 seats in the lower house of Parliament. For Delhi exit poll, Axis-My-India reached out to approx. 14000 respondents across socio-economic strata. This poll measured voting behaviours, preferences and predispositions of the city's diverse demography. Like a thorough statistical exercise, the survey delved deeper into the voters' educational background, economic conditions, work, age- groups, caste, and religious affiliations. The same model was adopted in every exit poll - and the predictions have been astoundingly correct.

Speaking about the Delhi exit poll, Axis-My-India CMD Pradeep Gupta said, “India is a regionally diverse, socially stratified and culturally discreet country and in such a scenario understanding of the landscape becomes very important. We at Axis-My-India adopts a methodology wherein we go to the ground in order to get to the real picture.” He further added “Our sampling is the most demographically and politically representative in any given election. Our polls try to look at the issues and problems faced by the common man and who they think is likely to address them. We capture the data accordingly and predict our results without any political bias.”

Kalli Purie, Vice Chairperson, INDIA TODAY Group said, "Every time we get a poll right, the stakes get higher. This was our 5th poll bang on. The trust put in us by our viewers is a big responsibility and makes us work harder (and gives us many sleepless nights!). People keep asking me - What's the secret sauce that even your bitterest competitor quote and copy your poll. The answer is simple. We wear glasses with no colour when we look at data. Data is always neutral. The partnership of the best data input from Axis and serious ground reporting from our team before every election has made this incredible feat possible. Having an unparalleled platform with the combined muscle of broadcast, digital and social also helps a little!”