Predictive prowess: Unraveling the 2024 ICC World Cup T20 ratings through data analytics

"Without data, you're just another person with an opinion." - said W. Edwards Deming

Cricket, a sport that unites nations, has always left its spectators in suspense of the outcome. It’s beauty lies in its unpredictability, with each match offering a unique narrative. The T20 World Cup Cricket Championship is no different. With over Rs 900 Cr invested on TV alone, predicting viewership ratings for each match becomes a complex yet intriguing task.

Our exploration began with the comprehensive data from the 2021 and 2022 World Cups, assisting us in navigating the labyrinth of viewership ratings. The significance of these ratings in the sports domain can't be understated as they directly influence the efficiency valuation of sports events, making viewership prediction a crucial aspect.

Our primary goal was to forecast the viewership ratings of each match in the forthcoming T20 World Cup. This prediction was executed through a robust regression analysis on past data, bolstered by the use of neural networks as an alternate view. We incorporated data from both Star Network and DD Network to ensure a comprehensive analysis.

Our methodology encompassed a wide-ranging array of factors for a holistic and precise prediction. We considered the nature of the matches—whether they were Qualifier, Super Eight, Semi-Finals, or Finals—each carrying its own unique viewership trend. We took into account the strength of the teams playing, the day of the week the matches were played, and prime time and non-prime time slots. We also considered the potential impact of Hotstar offering free streaming for the T20 World Cup, a factor that could potentially alter TV ratings.

We developed an intuitive tool that allows users to select any particular match of the World Cup they wish to investigate. Upon selection, the model analyzes the unique factors pertaining to the chosen match and delivers a closely predicted rating. The tool is equipped with the ability to predict ratings for the critical Super Eight, Semi-Finals, or Finals matches, based on potential teams that could play these matches.

Our model, with an adjusted R-Sq ~90 and Durbin Watson score ~2.0, has yielded some key insights and we are revealing only a few in this article:

• The projected average rating for the Star Network's coverage of the T20 World Cup 2024 is approximately 1.45, whereas the DD Network is expected to yield a rating of around 0.9.
• The most anticipated match of the tournament, India Vs Pakistan, is predicted to achieve a rating ~ 6.6 on the Star Network, the highest prediction among all matches, compared to a rating of roughly 1.1 on the DD Network.
• The average rating of the qualifying matches is 1.2. However, this rating is expected to experience a significant boost as we proceed to the Super Twelve matches.

In essence, we have successfully developed a sophisticated model to predict T20 World Cup match ratings, along with an accompanying tool. The potential impact of this project is significant, considering the multitude of factors involved. We advocate for data driven predictions, which in turn fuel informed decisions.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views of exchange4media.com.