Herd immunity comes when 70% of the population is vaccinated: Dr Ashok Seth

Expressing regret that despite being the powerhouse and largest producer of vaccines in the world things have fallen apart and India has failed to ramp up vaccination, Dr Ashok Seth, Padma Bhushan Awardee and Chairman Fortis Escorts Heart Institute, has said that the focus needs to be on percentage and not the number of the population vaccinated.

“With 1.2 billion population we cannot say we can vaccinate X no. of people. Herd immunity comes in when a large percentage of the population is vaccinated…till 70% population is vaccinated’’ said Dr Seth.

“As a country which is considered to the biggest manufacturers of the vaccine in the world, we started off with the right philosophy. What should have been the powerhouse of vaccination somehow seems to have fallen apart. It was said that when we started we had 60 million (6 crore) doses available a month and the capacity to manufacture 100 million (10 crore) doses a month and it was taken that we had the ability to manufacture 2.4 billion doses a year. We fell apart in understanding what needs to be ramped up”

He was in a conversation with Kailashnath Adhikari, MD, Governance Now during a webcast of the Visionary Talk series held by the public policy and governance analysis platform.

He drew an analogy with the voting process in the country and said that as a country with a huge population when India has the ability to make its 1. 2 billion people come out and vote and 70% of them turn out in an election process within just a few days for the national election. But it takes a longer time to vote than to get vaccinated. This is considered impossible worldwide.

He said the govt has worked efficiently over the last one year and expressed confidence that once the shortage is overcome in a month or two and required 150 -200 million doses are available every month, India will achieve its targets within six months’ time with surplus doses available.

“It has the ability to achieve this. All this was achievable in our country without having policies. There has been a 15-day lag as 18-44 years needed to be vaccinated and people needed their 2nd dose.”

Recommending increasing gap between two doses, Dr Seth said just like Britain delayed the second dose of vaccine by three months, WHO recommends the same.

The trials also show better immunity if 2nd dose is expended up to 3 months or 12 weeks. India could also follow the same and delay the second dose by 3 months instead of 2 months. This will extend the availability of the vaccine to a larger proportion of people at least for Covishield, he said.

He added that the vaccine gives 70%-80% protection against Covid two weeks after the 2nd dose and reduce the chances of deaths by 99%.

"It prevents us from getting a serious covid infection. A single dose reduces transmission of disease to others at home by 50% and creates herd immunity at the community level over a period of time. He said in 80% of cases things are going to be alright. In 20% of cases, virus is going to get the better of us."

He said that it is a must to following covid appropriate behaviour like properly wearing masks, double masking, social distancing, avoiding crowds, cross ventilation and hand hygiene are the barriers to virus and protect us from infection and bring back normality of life over a period of time.

The harsh reality, Dr Seth said is that the educated, intelligent and those who can easily follow this are setting bad examples and unfortunately biggest offenders.

While responding to a question on the recent emergence of Mucormycosis (blood fungus) cases, he said it is a life-threatening but a rare condition and can be serious for those who are immunosuppressed as it is airborne. He said it is important for those who have serious covid and been in the hospital and on steroids must watch out for symptoms of continuing fever, stuffiness of nose, aches and pains around eyes, mouth, sinuses, blurring of vision, strokes and immediately approach the doctor for a check-up as the fungus can spread inside the body.