India’s long-stressed television advertising market may finally be showing the first signs of life after last year’s GST rationalisation, but industry watchers caution that the revival is slow, selective and far from a sharp rebound.
The GST rationalisation, implemented on September 22, 2025, coincided with the start of India’s peak festive advertising period. The move announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, rationalised the structure for goods, merging four slabs (5%, 12%, 18%, 28%) into just two (5% and 18%), with an additional 40% bracket for luxury and sin goods.
Industry observers say December offered early evidence that this policy shift is beginning to reflect in advertising behaviour, even though budgets for the quarter were largely locked in well in advance.
According to a senior industry observer, “December volumes were up about 6–9 % over the October–November base, but Q3 FY26 as a whole remained largely flat. Q4 could deliver a low double-digit sequential growth, mainly from FMCG, auto, retail and sports-linked advertising. The recovery is visible, but it’s slow, deal-led, and highly dependent on category-specific momentum.”
Vivek Das, Chief Digital Officer, Madison Media, described the October–December 2025 quarter as “a reality check” for linear TV. “The OND 2025 quarter was perhaps a reality check for linear TV, with TV AdEx contracting marginally as urban demand headwinds collided with structural shifts. While rural consumption showed early green shoots, urban advertisers, facing volume pressure, seem to have pivoted hard towards efficiency over reach in December,” he said.
Multiple estimates peg December’s improvement in TV ad volumes at mid-single digits.
Sharing a similar view, Yasin Hamidani, Director, Media Care Brand Solutions, said, December showed an estimated 5–8 % improvement in TV ad volumes compared to the October–November average, driven largely by selective festive tail-end spends and improved sentiment post-GST cuts.
“For Q3 overall, the market was still flat to marginally positive, but Q4 is expected to close with a 10–12 percent sequential uptick, led by FMCG, auto, retail and sports-led inventory. This recovery is gradual, not a sharp rebound, and remains deal-driven rather than rate-led,” he said.
Broadcasters see ‘slow and steady’ recovery
Broadcasters that recently reported their Q3 results also pointed to a cautious but improving environment.
According to JioStar Entertainment CEO Kevin Vaz, “The TV ad market continues to be challenging due to spend cuts from FMCG and consumer electronics. But the good part is post-GST, December month has shown great signs of recovery, and we are hoping that continues as we go forward.”
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd (ZEEL) said Q3 saw a slowdown in FMCG spending, which dragged domestic advertising revenue down 10 % year-on-year and kept the domestic advertising environment soft.
At the same time, it flagged a sequential improvement.
“On the advertising front, we continue to observe a gradual and sequential pick-up in the ad spend by advertisers. Although it declined on a YOY basis, largely led by softness in FMCG spending, advertising revenues were up 6 percent quarter-on-quarter and though they are down 9 percent year-on-year, reflecting a slow but steady pace of recovery. While we are witnessing encouraging conversation with advertisers, however, we are yet to see the full benefits of GST cut and a sustained pick-up in FMCG advertising spend towards brand building initiatives,” ZEEL management said recently.
The company added that with the GST cuts and the macro backdrop of the past 12–18 months, it remains optimistic about its FY27 outlook.
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Budgets locked, rates under pressure
One key reason December did not see a sharper step-up, say media planners, is that television budgets are largely committed well in advance. As a result, December 2025 saw limited immediate incremental allocation, despite improving sentiment.
Vivek Das shared that brands did not unleash fresh TV budgets post-GST rationalisation. “Post-GST rationalisation and the RBI cut, brands didn't unleash fresh TV outlays; instead, they reallocated budgets into tactical, lower-funnel channels (Digital, Print, Retail Media) to capture the immediate ‘affordability’ impulse. December was a month of ‘conversion hunting’ rather than ‘brand building’,” Das said.
According to Hamidani, “Ad rates remained under pressure in the last quarter, with broadcasters offering tactical discounts to retain volumes. While headline rates stayed intact, effective CPRPs softened due to negotiated packages and added value inventory. Broadcasters are focused on yield protection, but in a buyer-led market, flexibility has increased, especially outside marquee properties and prime-time slots.”
Shift towards value, transparency and outcomes
As pricing power remains weak, broadcasters and media sellers are trying to hold on to volumes by rethinking how they sell inventory.
Nikhil Kumar, Chief Growth Officer, mediasmart, powered by Affle, said, “Broadcasters and media sellers, both linear and digital, are engaging clients with enhanced transparency, measurement assurances, and quality reporting, rather than simply relying on traditional rate adjustments. In other words, the focus has shifted from negotiating price alone to combining pricing with verifiable outcomes and quality assurances.”
He added that advertisers are increasingly placing a premium on measured outcomes, brand safety and fraud mitigation insights, with sellers structuring deals that emphasise value-added metrics and quality guarantees alongside pricing terms.
The GST cuts have also had a spillover effect beyond linear TV. Kumar said the GST reduction on large-screen smart TVs in September 2025 improved affordability and accelerated smart TV adoption, expanding the reach of connected screens. “Advertisers increased allocations to CTV and digital video channels during the festive and holiday period, contributing to increased overall on-screen spend even if linear TV itself remained challenged,” he said.
Festivals, FMCG and sports lift sentiment
Some segments did benefit more directly from the GST-driven affordability boost. Broadcast consultant Rajiv Khattar said, “The GST cut propelled the FMCG and white goods market, and combined with festival, the ad revenue saw gains as companies aggressively campaigned to make consumers aware of new lower pricing. The quarter gave perhaps the best revenue quarter of year which is natural as it has been known to be best due festivals.”
Even so, most executives agree that the recovery so far has been more about stabilisation than resurgence.
“Q4 looks more promising, especially with IPL, new launches and pre-summer demand driving interest. The first quarter of the next financial year should see a gradual rebound, provided consumption momentum holds. Brands are expected to balance TV with digital video, using television more strategically for reach-led moments rather than continuous heavy spends. Recovery will be steady, not sudden,” Hamidani said.
Das sees the GST and repo-rate impact as structural rather than tactical. “The ‘tactical’ December sets the stage for a ‘strategic’ Q4. The GST/Repo impact is now structural. As the inventory clears and rural demand solidifies, TV is expected to see a value-led recovery in Jan–Mar 2026, but it is more likely to be driven by volume (FCT) rather than pricing power,” he said.
Q4 and FY27 outlook: cautious optimism
Looking ahead, industry watchers are broadly aligned that Q4 FY26 should be meaningfully better than Q3, helped by IPL, new product launches, sports-led inventory and seasonal demand.
Kumar expects a broader advertising recovery as India heads into FY27. “Total ad revenue is projected to reach around ₹2.0 trillion in 2026, a 9.7 percent increase. Connected TV (CTV) stands out as a key driver, with ad revenue expected to grow about 22 percent, supported by rapid household adoption, higher viewer engagement and rising demand for larger 43″ and 55″ smart screens,” he said.
He added that major spending moments in Q4 FY26 - from Republic Day sales to the T20 World Cup, Holi and the IPL- could make the quarter a stellar period for advertisers, with sectors such as e-commerce, retail, fintech, BFSI, automotive and consumer goods leading the charge.
For now, though, the verdict is measured. The GST cuts have lifted sentiment and nudged volumes upward in December, but the TV ad market’s revival is still in its early innings- slow, deal-driven and dependent on whether consumer demand sustains into the new financial year.