India’s ad rev to grow at 12% in 2023: GroupM TYNY report
As per the report, global ad revenue will continue to grow at 6%
The GroupM 'This Year Next Year' Mid-Year Global Forecast 2023 is out. As per the report, global advertising revenue will continue to grow 5.9%.
Global advertising in 2023 will total $874.5 billion, excluding U.S. political advertising, it states.
“The macroeconomic environment has led some markets to trim expectations for 2023 as compared to our December forecast, including India (from 16.8% to 12.0%), GroupM has stated.
"We should expect a return to lapping more “normalcy” in terms of advertising revenue growth. Our estimate for 2023 growth remains unchanged from our December forecast — 5.9% (positive in nominal terms, but negative after adjusting for inflation)."
The automotive sector is expected to once again have inventory to promote, and the purchase en masse of new computers and TVs at the start of the pandemic will reach the beginning of expected upgrade cycles as the year ends, it further says.
Digital ad revenue in 2023 will account for 68.8% of total revenue at $598.5 billion dollars. There has
been a marked deceleration in growth from the 32.0% recorded in 2021, with 2022 coming in at 9.2% and 8.4% expected in 2023 (in line with our December 2022 predictions).
TV ad revenue
In 2023, global traditional TV revenue is forecast to be $133.6 billion (excluding U.S. political advertising), a decline of 1.2% from 2022. By comparison, CTV revenue in 2023 is estimated at $25.9 billion, an increase of 13.2% over 2022 revenue of $22.9 billion. The global CAGR for CTV through 2028 currently stands at 10.4% with expected revenue of $42.5 billion in 2028.
In terms of print’s share of total advertising revenue, the 2023 figure stands at 5.7% when including digital extensions. That is expected to fall to just 3.7% in 2028.
OOH
The global out-of-home (OOH) channel has succeeded in surpassing 2019 revenue levels one year earlier than we had predicted in our December 2022 forecast (albeit by a scant $11.8 million). Growth in 2023 (including both traditional and digital OOH) is forecast at 12.7% helped by a rebound in China, which will add 39.7% in 2023 after declining 40.4% in 2022. On an ex-China basis, global OOH growth is estimated to be 7.5% in 2023. We expect growth to continue through 2028.
Digital OOH, taken separately, is forecast to grow 26.1% in 2023 to $13.3 billion. This represents a five-year CAGR of just 5.0% as declines globally in 2020 and within China in 2022 impacted the channel. The expected CAGR for 2023 to 2028 is 9.4% on a global basis. Growth of traditional OOH will also be positive, with a five-year CAGR of 4.3% through 2028. However, revenue for traditional OOH will not recover above 2019 levels until 2025.
DOOH will represent 37.2% of total OOH in 2023, with that figure growing to 43.0% in 2028.
