IRS 2009 R1: Expert View: Anita Nayyar – Some happy, some sad in Mumbai and Delhi

For some time now, the leadership of the leader in the commercial capital of India seems to be under threat and the IRS 2009 R1 data sees something similar. The Times of India and Mumbai Mirror from the same stable both sliding down in terms of AIR and TR. There have to be some gainers as the readers can’t vanish into thin air and hence, DNA seems to be gaining at the cost of TOI, if one looks at the direct losses versus gains.

However, HT also gains, though at a slower rate than DNA. The other leader in the afternoon segment, Mid-Day also loses in TR. Economic Times, another daily from the leader’s stable, also loses some numbers, though not at the same pace as the leader – TOI. MT adds grace to the numbers by growing the most. The only saving grace is the fact that the difference in both AIR and TR is a wide one and it will be some time before the No. 2 and No. 3 catch up with the leader.

In the Mumbai regionals, most, including Gujarat Samachar, Navakal, Saamana, Navabharat Times and Lokmat, show an increase. The only marginal loser to some extent is Loksatta. The toppers are Saamana and Lokmat. The regionals seem healthier than the English dailies. However, it is important to note the overall absolute numbers as once again the difference between the No. 1 English daily and regional daily is wide.

DNA shows half the numbers of TOI in the share of reach of AED. However, TOI reaches approx three times more in the Sec A segment. DNA has increased in Males & females, Age groups of 20-39 years and in higher education groups and also Sec C& D (where the increases are marginal). It loses the younger age groups, hence showing probable signs of maturity.

Similar analysis of the power capital, Delhi, indicates a slightly different picture. HT is gaining in TR and losing in AIR, while for TOI it is the other way around. The gap between the two in TR is decreasing, with HT catching up. In fact, the AIR number gap from IRS 2008 R2 to IRS 2009 R1 between the two has halved. Mint and Metro Now are the gainers, with the gain for Metro Now much higher.

The numbers do not spell gains for Navbharat Times, which is almost stagnant in TR despite a minor gain in AIR. Hindustan seems to be taking the steam out in the Hindi regionals, followed closely by Jagran. Seems like the overall TR for Hindi dailies in Delhi is increasing as the losses and gains do not even out.

Moral of the story, amongst the top 10 in both the markets, the threat seems to be coming for the leading English daily. The threat in Delhi from a Hindustan to a Navbharat Times has a faster momentum than the one in the English environment in Mumbai.

So watch out, and a word of caution just in case someone out there is taking things easy. The so-called slowdown is only going to make it worse.

(Anita Nayyar is CEO – India & South Asia at MPG.)