India market climbed to eighth spot in 2023: GroupM

GroupM's nest forecast (the end-of-year forecast) is out, and it explores how external factors spanning socioeconomic, technology, culture, government and the economy will impact advertising over the coming months and years. Also, for the first time, in This Year Next Year, the Group has compiled data across CPG, auto, entertainment, luxury, tech and “digital endemics” to help better understand the flow of advertising revenue from advertiser categories.  

The estimates for 2023 are 5.8% growth, in line with the Group's June forecast, with growth decelerating in 2024 to 5.3%. This will represent an improvement in real terms, adjusting for inflation, yet still negative real growth. will return to positive levels of real growth in 2025, when the nominal growth rate will hit 5.6% and global inflation expectations from the IMF fall to 4.6%. 

Here is the overall forecast and some other key facts:

• 2023: The estimate for 2023 growth is 5.8%, in line with the June forecast, totalling $889 billion, excluding U.S. political advertising.
• 2024: estimate that this growth will decelerate in 2024 to 5.3%.
• Digital—and by this mean “pure play” digital, excluding the digital extensions of traditional media such as CTV and digital out-of-home (DOOH), but including YouTube and TikTok—will finish the year up 9.2%, better than the June forecast of 8.4% (excluding U.S. political advertising). By 2028, pureplay digital will be larger than the entire advertising industry was in 2022.
• Retail Media is the smallest segment within digital but is growing quickly, adding more than $10 billion in revenue in 2023 and forecast to grow 8.3% in 2024. Revenue in 2023 is estimated to be $119.4 billion, a downgrade from the June report forecast of $125.7 billion. This change is primarily due to a series of factors impacting China’s retail market. Although the U.S. and China are still expected to represent 77.6% of global retail media ad revenue in 2024, they will be among the slost growing. By 2028, expect retail media revenue to exceed that of linear TV and CTV combined.
• Television, including CTV, is the third largest major channel for global ad revenue (behind search and ‘other digital’), falling to 17.9% of the total in 2023. 

Here are also some country-specific updates and changes:

• In that order, the U.S. and China remain the two largest markets in terms of ad revenue.
• The U.K. has replaced Japan in the number three spot. This is largely due to the weakening of the Japanese yen over the last six months and revised expectations in both markets.

• Germany and France retain their fifth and sixth spots, respectively.
• Canada moves from seven to nine, Brazil rises from eight to seven, and India climbs from nine to eight. Australia remains the 10th largest market for ad revenue.
• expect all these rankings to hold for 2024 (unless, of cse, counted U.S. political ad revenue as its market, in which case it would soar past Australia and sit just behind Canada in 10th).